Electoral Calculus predict a Labour victory in Bermondsey & Old Southwark

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Monday 21 October 2013 12.16pm
The electoral analysts, Electoral Calculus as of end of September suggest a 6.78% predicted majority victory to Labour in the 2015 general election in Bermondsey and Old Southwark


Electoral calculus prediction 2015 general election
Monday 21 October 2013 3.30pm
Hughes deserves to be dumped, for sure, but the thought of some grinning Labour automaton replacing him is hardly an appealing prospect.
Monday 21 October 2013 6.54pm
Naaah, surely they have misplaced the decimal point, it should read 67.8%
Tuesday 22 October 2013 10.02am
The Labour candidate is Neil Coyle, currently ward councilor for Newington.

Residents of the Draper Estate, who have been subjected to years of major works and are constantly struggling in their dealings LBS and the contractors haven't seen much of him and he has most definitively not championed their quest for fair and honest treatment...

Simon Huges, on the other hand, has attended several residents meeting and visited the estate and its residents on several occasions.
Tuesday 22 October 2013 2.58pm
And the margin of error of poll is? +/-? It would need to be much higher than 6% to be of any interest to me.

DRAPER House, what a story that is. No sign of Simon over on the Hawkstone Estate's John Kennedy House but hopefully he'll pop up and help with asbestos, fire safety and other issues. We are struggling too.

I am amazed, who ever wins the local council elections, how the Council carries on regardless.

Jerry Hewitt
Hawkstone HighRise Community Association
Tuesday 22 October 2013 7.17pm
hhrca wrote:
And the margin of error of poll is? +/-? It would need to be much higher than 6% to be of any interest to me.
DRAPER House, what a story that is. No sign of Simon over on the Hawkstone Estate's John Kennedy House but hopefully he'll pop up and help with asbestos, fire safety and other issues. We are struggling too.

I am amazed, who ever wins the local council elections, how the Council carries on regardless.

Jerry Hewitt
Hawkstone HighRise Community Association

Jerry,

Let me know if the experiences of our struggles here on the Draper Estate can be of use to you and your fellow residents.

Jules Adamoli
Draper Residents Association
DRA-SE1@europe.com
Thursday 24 October 2013 6.58am
Jules62 -. I have attended several meetings with Draper residents (and have another one soon re Crossway). The last meeing was cancelled due to illness of Draper TRA rep. I also raised casework for Draper residents before the major incident and have knocked every door in Draper House during the maor works. Recently I have been delivering info letters to the wider estate (yours will be with you soon). But email Neil.Coyle@southwark.gov.uk if you have unaddressed issues I can help with.

The polling for 2015 is certainly favourable for Labour. Many people from across the constituency are already coming to me with casework who can't get help from the sitting MP - and just last weekend we signed up more former Lib Dem members/activists disaffected due to Hughes' role in Govt and recognising Labour's positive alternative.
Thursday 24 October 2013 11.19am
hhrca wrote:
And the margin of error of poll is? +/-?

Electoral Calculus takes account of all of the national polls. Where is varies is in its modeling which is widely-credited with being the most accurate at translating national swing to local seats. It had a good record at the two general elections since its inception.

However it doesn't take into its model any local data/polling so particularly controversial local issues may differ the vote considerably from the model.
Thursday 24 October 2013 12.13pm
while on the subject of 'choices', paxman/brand interview might be of interest http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24648651
Thursday 24 October 2013 12.27pm
I saw that interview Pros,if that's total abstinance can I have some?
Everything he said, I have felt for quite a while.
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