House prices continue to rise

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Tuesday 28 October 2008 5.21pm
A long time since we've had a house price thread, so I thought it was worth pointing out that prices in Southwark are up 0.22% on the month, and 1.4% year-on-year.

http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/assets/library/documents/251208.pdf
Wednesday 29 October 2008 2.21pm
Properties in my building still seem to be going up
Wednesday 29 October 2008 3.09pm
Land Registry figures are a bit fictional - not only are they several months out of date by the time they're published, but they exclude repossessions and new builds.

For what it's worth, a friend bought a 2-bed flat near me for 185k last summer, and a 3-bed flat in the same block is now on the market for 175k and not shifting. A flat up my road which sold for 292k last Spring is on the market for 285k, and not shifting.

I'd say that's just anecdote (and admittedly both SE16, but Southwark's Southwark...) but the Land Registry data is also based on a vanishingly small transaction volume - I think 250 sales in the whole of Southwark for the relevant month.

The last Nationwide Quarterly report had house prices in Southwark down 4%, so I agree we're not feeling the full force of it yet. Let's see what happens when the sudden wave of redundancies in the City start feeding through...
Thursday 30 October 2008 1.36pm
I think the houses around me (Alma Grove) have fallen from their peak, when one fetched close to 450k, to around or a smidgen under 400k. Having said that, since 95% of people can't raise a mortage at the moment, if you tried to sell now, I'm sure you'd have to discount further. When liquidity returns, I think prices will start to move up again on the basis that there are a very limited supply of 3 bed houses with gardens in SE1/Zone 1 (we've now had 2 letters through the door from people desperate to buy a house in the area).
Saturday 1 November 2008 9.48am
Er, Mapmaker, I think you need to change the title of your thread.

As anyone with even a vague idea about statistics can spot instantly, those figures show that house prices are not CONTINUING to rise at all. The fact that they are only up 1.4% YoY reflects the fact that they have actually been FALLING since the heady days of double digit growth. The tiny rise last month is just a blip on the long way down.

Take a look at this Land Registry graph for Southwark for the past two years for the real picture.

http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/houseprices/housepriceindex/report/default.asp?step=4&locationType=0&area=Southwark&reporttype=1&datetype=1&from1=09%2F2006&from2=09%2F2008&image2.x=17&image2.y=10

If you take the latest report as good news, then I really do fear for you. We are heading into the longest and most painful economic depression history has ever seen.

Anyone who would be prepared to buy now, even if they could get hold of financing, would have to be absolutely insane - especially if they weren't savvy enough to demand a massive cut off the asking price.
Monday 3 November 2008 3.54pm
I'm looking for a flat in SE1, and a flat listed for 395,000 dropped immedietly to 380,000 while talking to the agent. It is now at 360,000, and still no takers. There is no way flat prices are increasing.
Monday 3 November 2008 5.27pm
The value of my flat still increasing. That's why I'm unwilling to sell it.

I admit I do feel for those people with flats that are decreasing in value and are therefore trying to sell before they become even less valuable.
Monday 3 November 2008 8.47pm
reece wrote:
The value of my flat still increasing. That's why I'm unwilling to sell it.

I suspect if you tried to sell it, you might discover that its value is not increasing...
Tuesday 4 November 2008 9.14am
beingjdc wrote:
reece wrote:
The value of my flat still increasing. That's why I'm unwilling to sell it.

I suspect if you tried to sell it, you might discover that its value is not increasing...

I suspect reece is making an ironic comment on the commonly observed tendency for all property investors to believe that their house/road/city is immune from the crash.

You are, aren't you, reece?
Tuesday 4 November 2008 9.54am
Beowulf wrote:
I suspect reece is making an ironic comment on the commonly observed tendency for all property investors to believe that their house/road/city is immune from the crash.

You are, aren't you, reece?

It was rather tongue-in-cheek.

It's rather easy to feel insulated as an owner while you're not desperate to sell and so not actively participating in the market. It seems like there will be a rude awakening when the current would-like-to-sell discover that no-one can or will buy at any price.
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