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COVID-19 - how many people have died in London?

Jessie Mathewson, Local Democracy Reporter

How many people have died of coronavirus in London? This sounds like a question that should be easy to answer – but the reality is more complicated.

There are lots of figures about coronavirus deaths in London, and the numbers change fast.

The Government publishes national updates, including running totals of Covid-19 deaths in each region and local council area.

But these figures only include people who tested positive for coronavirus – where doctors are absolutely sure that is why they died.

The NHS also publishes figures for each hospital trust in the country – but these don't account for people who died at home, in care homes, or elsewhere.

Collecting the data is complicated too – not everyone who dies is counted on the day of their death, which means numbers for previous days can be updated.

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Figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) are more comprehensive – they cover all deaths, not just those in hospitals.

The numbers include any death where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. This means that if doctors suspect a patient died of the virus, but they were not tested, they will still be counted.

But they take longer to collect: the latest figures, released today, run from January to April 24, putting them a week and a half behind.

The latest ONS data suggests coronavirus deaths in London have been falling for several weeks.

It backs up what Government ministers and their scientific advisors have said, that London is past the peak of the pandemic.

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The latest weekly data shows there were 627 coronavirus deaths in hospitals, 180 deaths in care homes, 51 deaths at home and 22 deaths in hospices. There were seven deaths in other communal facilities, and three elsewhere.

Deaths seem to be falling almost everywhere – hospital deaths were down a third on the last week, deaths at home fell 30 per cent, and care home deaths almost halved. Deaths in hospices rose slightly from 22 to 16.

Because of the virus, many more people are dying in London than usual – the latest weekly update shows there are still almost twice as many deaths as there would normally be at this time of year.

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But comparing with past years is also a way to measure how accurate current figures are – or whether more people may have died of the virus than is being recorded.

The five year average of deaths shows how many people are likely to die in a normal year in London. Excluding coronavirus deaths, this figure should be similar for 2020 compared to any other year.

The data shows that this year started out below the five year average – fewer people were dying than normal. But when the Covid-19 outbreak began, that changed.

The number of deaths not attributed to coronavirus rose well above the average. In the week when deaths peaked in London, there were 500 more deaths than would be expected that weren't recorded as coronavirus related.

Some of those could have been caused by the virus – meaning Covid-19 would have claimed more lives than we think.

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