Because of Simon Hughes's active support for the campaign to save the moorings by Tower Bridge and his excellent attempt to mediate between the grotesquely arrogant occupants of the flats and the boat peopl .he definitely stands an excellent chance of becoming Mayor.
'The latest polling figures show that the Mayoral Election is a two horse race, with Steve Norris closing the gap on Ken Livingstone. In a YouGov poll commissioned for ITN on March 1st, the Mayor polled 46% of the vote to Steve Norris' 31%.'
No sign of the Liberal democrats. A Gray/Green vote (fine color scheme) would be a wasted vote: make your vote heard, either Norris or Livingstone.
I'm not sure that standing up for the boat people is a big vote winner across London!
Pollsters that ask direct questions (and get straight answers) will find their findings are weakened by the fact that the system used in the elections is one of transferable votes. I agree the barges issue might not make to much of an impact but SH is widely respected by people outside of his party and just the sort of candidate to benefit from transferable votes.
I also think the fact that the odds on Simon Hughes have shortened from 9/1 to 6/1 since late January suggests that quite a few informed punters have a clear understanding both of the way campaigns develop and London's Mayoral electoral system.
This may be a better forecast than YouGov's snapshot opinion poll.
If he was something like 25/1, and you got each way 1/4 the odds for 2nd place, then that might be a value bet.
I think SH has gone downhill over the last few years (in terms of profile in the area and in general). It may well be a reflection on me and the amount of "serious" articles I read nowadays compared to a few years ago, but I remember him as being much more prominent when I first moved to the area (bad memory for dates, but say 8 yrs ago). I seem to hardly hear of him nowadays, and have never seen him or any of his canvassers since the first year I moved here.
Norris is a tricky proposition, from this punter's point of view. Will he pick up the block Tory/anti-Ken vote? Is there anything else to recommend him (apart from him not being Ken - which seems to be attractive to a few people)?. I can see SH coming second (to Ken), but can't imagine him (or Norris) winning.