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11,000 new homes over 30 YEARS is nonsense because...

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Thursday 13 March 2014 6.44pm
PeterJohn wrote:
There are clear commitments - at least 1000 new council homes by 2020 - with 11,000 being delivered over the next 25/30 years.

Hi Peter,

Thank you for finding the time to respond to the issues raised by this thread.

I find the figures you offer rather odd: how come it will take 6 years to deliver 1000 homes (166.66 homes per year)? At this rate it will take 66 years to deliver 11,000 new homes: the objective would be achieved in 2080 if by next you mean from now. If instead by next you actually meant following 2020 then we are looking at 11,000 homes being delivered in 5/10 years: 2200/1100 homes per year.

Are you sure you calculations are correct, or perhaps you are envisaging a wholly new technological and funding approach to be implemented after 2020?

If this is the case, I urge you to please give us details of these amazing breakthroughs.

Given that contractors on the Draper House refurbishment project are given 12 working days (16 actual days) to install a kitchen, it would take them 1 year to install 22.81 kitchens, yet entire homes can be built at a much faster rate according to your figures...

I really think some clarity is badly needed here, for everyone's sake.
Friday 14 March 2014 9.45am
Thanks Jules62 - the figures have been a bit of a puzzle to me as well. Let's see what response your posting elicits, if any!
Sunday 16 March 2014 2.19pm
Peter sees 600 jobs as a positive outcome. Just as I expect having a London Living Wage for Council employees and council contractors.

My idea of a resident is someone who has lived in Southwark for a good while and maybe grown up and gone to school around here. I have those people in mind. I would not say born here, although some will.

My problem is that each of the new build council home is pencilled in as costing 200,000 to build (excluding the land). Each home will benefit one household. Hidden Homes was also very expensive per unit.

Held at Southwark's current guesstimate,and building inflation is back,that's 11,000 x 200,000 programme or 2,200,000,000, 2.2 Billion.

And Mr.Balls is on the Andrew Marr show hardly saying it's going to be easy going in the next decade. But at least Ed was not advertising Lend Lease this morning!

So this commitment of Peter's is pure political theatre and playing on a severe and disturbing housing crisis.

And the 600 jobs? Our depleted remaining housing stock (62,000 to 35,000 in 30 years) could accommodate more families if it was reorganised with care.

The Council will drags it's feet spending 20,000 on an existing unit but will spend 200,000 on a new one.

And more jobs and more homes will be provided for residents when new council build focuses on rehousing our existing tenants to free up existing family sized homes which can be renovated. The focus should be providing new purpose built homes for elderly and others who will happily free up existing family sized homes.

Happily if we build what they want where they want it. But this won't happen if we sell sites to developers or try to infill on cherished and important open play spaces and green space in Estates.

Why do they persist with regeneration that produces less job and less homes? Because money talks.

And not the latest wheeze is to redraw "town centre" boundaries and say that residential homes are not a required town centre use. So Peter asks us, asks me, to suggest sites for new council homes knowing very well that his cabinet colleague is already planning new council homes out of many sites.

This on top of making all kinds of affordable homes less viable in tall buildings - see B&B SDP.

Whole thing is, overall, a shambles. Except for developers who are doing very very well out of it. And I for one, don't think Southwark's deals have been good enough.
Zoe
Sunday 16 March 2014 5.44pm
Where are you getting 200,000 a property from?
Monday 17 March 2014 11.09am
Here you are Zoe.

Cabinet 18 March specifically Item 18 Appendix 1 see foot of appendix 200,000

In the old days we would have gone down to Cabinet / Executive and had a rant to them about it. Nowadays can't be bothered. Groupthink lemmings all over the place.

It's kind of fun to wait for Cabinet to walked into the mess Officers and others have set up for them!

Please note that the 200,000 is indicative and an estimate. It could be more, or it could be less. It's guesstimate. So Peter's whole plan and claim is based on very rough back of a napkin workings.

A site like the Albion Street library will need demolishing and clearing for example. And require specific materials and design.

Building inflation is also back with vengence, getting worse, and we can expect that inflation to cut into any new build budget severely. Also the 200,000 will include all of Southwark's inflated additional costs such as design, management, administration etc. Could easily see 30% gone on that. And there will be the contractors profit, and the subcontractors cut.

They will of course "competitively" tender to be ripped off as usual. That alone, the "Southwark" premium that all the tenderers load in, will further reduce homes.

I would say 50 to 60% of money leaks, so there is a lot of commercial interests in this 2.2 Billion+ programme.

That all said, I hope it works out. Just I am impatient for more now, and not pie in the sky claims for tomorrow.
Monday 17 March 2014 3.09pm
i do wonder how the people justify this unaffordable(cept for the richy rich butts of the world, not unaffordable for them) stuff theyre planning and building

if the apartments and whatever are being sold/rented to foreign buyers who wont be living in them, im wondering how theyre thinking this is good for the area
if theres no one living here, who the hell is going to be buying things from local stores and markets other than the tourists?
Monday 17 March 2014 5.17pm
hhrca, thank you for the laugh; "They will of course "competitively" tender to be ripped off as usual".
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